effectivelywildfandomcom-20200215-history
Episode 876: The Thanks for Buying Our Book Edition
Date May 4, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about book events and answer listener emails about baseball’s Leicester City, the batting order, Rich Hill, Manny Machado and more. Topics * Episode 875 follow-up: Openly making changes to the ball. * Minor league team winning the World Series * Mistaken portrayals of baseball & baseball thing * Manny Machado and positional switches * Byron Buxton and prospect development * Link between defensive position and lineup position * Rich Hill contract hypotheticals Intro Jenny Lewis, "The Highs and Lows of Being Number One" Outro Red Hot Chili Peppers, "Meet Me at the Corner" Banter There are several upcoming events for The Only Rule Is It Has to Work. Email Questions * Andrew: "Tonight on CBS Evening News Scott Pelly was reacting to Leicester City winning the Premier League with preseason odds of 5,000-1. He then stated that 5,000-1 was "as unlikely as a minor league baseball team winning the World Series." Now I think the fallacy of this statement speakers for itself, however I know you guys like to go deep so I was wondering. Let's say one minor league team got invited to the playoffs based on some level weighted calculation of overall performance. They would obviously be the best team in the minor leagues that season but how could we assess their odds of winning the World Series?" * Sam: "There is a five hour energy commercial on MLB.TV featuring Jose Fernandez where he drinks the five hour energy and goes on to throw a pitch to someone on a missed batter. While releasing the pitch you can see he has a four seam grip on the ball which then rolls up off the top of his two fingers. Definitely a four seamer. Then they show the pitch in flight in slow motion, rolling with back spin and with all four seams rolling each time around. Good, definitely still a four seamer. Then they show the batter preparing to swing and before the ball enters the frame I'm thinking, 'Please get it right' but no, the ball dives down almost on top of the plate and the batter swings over it out in front. How do we think about this one? Obviously this requires more detailed knowledge than can be looked up on Baseball Reference, even baseball fans who know the difference between a fastball and a curveball on TV might not realize the mistake from the grip and the spin. In other words, whom do we blame and how much?" * Mark: "Is Manny Machado the best shortstop in baseball?" * Christopher: "About three years ago Byron Buxton was supposed to be the next Mike Trout. He had all the tools, was going to be the next no-doubt Twins superstar and was projected to be one of the most exciting players in the game. But in the majors he's looked completely lost at the plate and he's been terrible. I understand that he might have had a couple injuries that could have slowed his progress, but he still hit very well at every level of the minors, so what are the odds he ends up never making it? If I were to take a bet just based on their tool sets, I'd say that Joey Gallo is much more likely to end up a bust but is there any basis to that? Are contact/speed/line drive guys more likely to live up to their promise than strikeout/home run guys? Or is this mostly a case of the Twins jerking him around and not giving him a chance to fail?" * Andrew: "I have a theory about Rich Hill. Let's say that Hill having earned $3 million before this year and having invested it wisely doesn't care too much about money and just wants to win a World Series. When pondering which team to join he is approached by the A's. He immediately rebuffs their advances saying the A's don't look like competitors this year. 'I know Beane explains, and that's the great thing. Sign with my team and I will trade you to the competitor of your choice.' Rich Hill wins in this scenario because he gets to see which teams are for real and which aren't and maximizes odds of winning it all and Billy Beane wins because he gets prospects to load up on for next year when he trades what looks like a dominant starting pitcher. How close do you think this is to the truth?" * Knowing what we do about Rich Hill, how much do we blame the Red Sox for letting him walk away? Given the fact that Dave Dombrowski is supposed to be very good at scouting players and knowing which of his own guys are good, and given that a or the major advantage that scouts have over numbers is the ability to spot a skill before it creates numbers that are statistically significant, and given that Hill probably improved because of something the team itself identified and fixed, isn't it reasonable for a Red Sox fan to expect his team to have identified a litter better that Hill was worth a $7 million flyer even if we on the outside had the right to be skeptical?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to examine the connection between certain positions and lineup spots. * Since 2006 there have been eight catchers who started a game in the leadoff spot. * Sam finds the most common defensive position for each lineup spot. The most common batting order (by defensive position that most bats in that lineup spot) is: CF, 2B, RF, 1B, 3B, LF, C, SS, P. Notes * Ben, on the upcoming book events, "If you're not in the New York area then you're out of luck but at least your rent is low." * In 2011 the NCAA deadened bats in college baseball but it was by too much. In 2015 they openly lowered the seams on the baseball. * Russell Carleton calculated that a minor league team would have approximately a 2,000-1 chance of winning the World Series if they made the playoffs. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 876: The Thanks for Buying Our Book Edition * Catcher's mitt commercial freeze frame * The Worst Baseball on Film by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes